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Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate

The duo have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Both authors two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.

Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."

Appeal for Broader Discussion

Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."